In 2010 consumer appetite for IPTV was established. In 2011 a battle for openness, control and content partnerships will define this new technology

The television experience is constantly changing and evolving with the increasing number of devices and platforms available to watch video content. This year two of the tech giants, Apple and Google, have seriously entered the market to make the web accessible through your television screen. However, both have very different strategies as the battle over openness and control will play out through your television sets in 2011.


How IPTV has changed in 2010

The earlier version of Apple TV was initially downplayed as only a “hobby” by Apple’s CEO, Steve Jobs [1]. However, in the current market, research by GfK NOP indicates that consumers are now not only ready, but looking, for web accessible television.  Signs of early demand for TV-based applications have been demonstrated by Samsung who recently announced that it has received over one million application downloads via its internet-enabled HDTVs since their launch in March [2].  Apple is also looking to leverage the strengths of its quickly expanding content and services ecosystem [3], its well-established following and capitalise on the trend towards mobility and interconnectivity [4]. Apple has revamped its product which has been available since the end of November. Apple TV offers a simple, stylish interface which provides users with the ability to stream and rent TV programmes, films, music and photos from the web to their television sets. In this sense though, arguably, Apple has only created a new platform for the iTunes empire for music and movie buffs. But the extension and growing interconnectivity of their ecosystem is what will drive demand for this product. Apple TV will allow you to wirelessly beam video and audio from an iPhone, iPad or iPod touch, rather than relinquishing control to the set top box or TV set.

In contrast, Google, a brand driven by its extensive capabilities – has introduced the World Wide Web to the television set with ‘search’ being at the core of the proposition. The endless capabilities allow the user “to search across every channel, every app and the entire web simultaneously”[5], allowing the end-user wide exploration of content. However, this lack of focus may offer a service too complicated and impractical for the regular consumer wanting to relax in front of the television set. In addition, The Wall Street Journal recently reported that ABC, CBS and NBC are blocking Google TVs from accessing their content, due to a concern that they will lose their existing control of the broadcast business – a huge set back for Google’s aim to offer the entire video content of the web [6].

IPTV developments in 2011

A recent study by GfK NOP shows that currently 51% of internet users aged 16-65 in the UK today watch broadcast television via the internet.  The ultimate question is whether those who currently use VoD on their PCs will naturally upgrade to IPTV. The research findings, to which we applied GfK’s Truth Index to help eliminate consumer overclaim, showed that in 2010, 1.86million of UK internet users intended to invest in IPTV [7]. However, those interested have not made up their minds about which solution they prefer, as interest is at similar levels for Apple, Google, TiVo and Roku. 2011 will be a key year for IPTV solution providers to communicate the benefits and use cases in order to differentiate their offer and better resonate with those consumers looking to invest.

IPTV may not be mature enough to break TV cable/satellite subscriptions yet, but there is definitely growing demand for integrating television and the internet whilst we move into 2011. It is inevitable therefore that web-based TV will eventually be cracked by the market leaders, but the question still remains as to when, and more importantly, who will, at least initially, take the lead?

[1]        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11521742

[2]        http://thenextweb.com/media/2010/12/08/can-the-smart-tv-kill-the-desktop/

[3]        https://gfktechtalk.com/2010/11/30/the-smartphone-market-is-there-to-be-won-in-2011-the-mobile-ecosystem-will-be-critical-to-driving-loyalty/

[4]        https://gfktechtalk.com/2010/09/21/the-trend-towards-connectivity-and-mobility-is-driving-consumer-technology-renewal-and-sector-growth/

[5]          http://www.google.com/tv/

[6]http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303339504575566572021412854.html

[7]        Based on a sample of 886. Research conducted by GfK NOP in October 2010.

Photo credit: J Aaron Farr    (http://www.flickr.com/photos/jaaronfarr/5101103424/)

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January 5, 2011 | Rachel Hamilton | Tags: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Email is dead. Long live email.

Facebook’s new email service, which combines a variety of communication methods, has been hailed to be the next Gmail- or even Email-killer, but recent GfK NOP data shows otherwise – that Facebook Messages is likely to be used alongside current email and instant messaging clients, and is unlikely to replace them, at least in the short term.


Known before only as “Project Titan”, the new Facebook messaging service is said to combine email, SMS, chat and Facebook email; users will also have the option to have a @facebook.com email address. Launched on 15 November this year, the service is, at present, by invitation only, but users can apply for an invite on the popular social networking site.

A recent online study by GfK NOP [1] shows that just under than a third of Facebook users say that they are likely to start using the new messaging service when it becomes available. Many appear to be in the ‘wait and see’ camp, with two-fifths saying that they’re neither likely nor unlikely to start using it. Given the ease and speed with which Facebook users adopt the various add-ons offered by the site (Farmville anyone?), we are likely to see this service quickly taken up if it proves to be intuitive and useful to adopters.

However, it would appear, like many new services, that until Facebook Messages has gained momentum and users are comfortable with it, it is unlikely to replace current email or instant messaging solutions, as on the whole, people are happy with the services they already use.

There is also the question of the professionalism and seriousness of the site – would you really want to put a @facebook email address on your CV, a site that is associated with numerous LOLs, embarrassing party photos and Mafia Wars requests?

Hotmail and Yahoo! mail, the largest email clients in the UK, are most likely to lose users to Facebook, but only 6% and 5% of users, respectively, say that they will replace their email with Facebook Messages. While Gmail users are least likely to give up their email account, they are most likely to consider taking up Facebook Messages (alongside their Gmail) – possibly because users of Gmail are more likely to be open to new things, give the access they have to innovative and integrated services, such as Google Chat/GTalk, Google Buzz and the now-defunct Google Wave.

Unsurprisingly, the younger age groups are more likely to take it up, and while women, as a very broad generalisation, are considered be less techie, their love of communication makes them more inclined to want to try it. Using a chat client also leaves one more disposed to consider taking up Facebook Messages.

Finally, those not using any form of social networking don’t see the appeal of the new service – 61% say they are extremely unlikely to start using FB mail, showing that while Facebook is considered to be taking over the world, there is a still a strong camp of “anti-Facebookers”. Surprisingly, given the troubles Facebook has had in the past, security does not appear to be the main concern for those unlikely to use the new service, but rather a general dislike for the site overall.

Whether Facebook Messages lives up to the hype, and provides a seamless service between SMS, email and chat, remains to be seen. But for now it looks like a good proportion of Facebook users are likely to go with it, like they have before, and Mark Zuckerberg will be one step closer to his vision of connecting the entire world on Facebook.

[1] Online research was conducted by GfK NOP among a sample of internet users in the UK (983). Fieldwork was conducted during November 2010.

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December 7, 2010 | Laura Stockwell | Tags: , Email, , , , , , , , , | No Comments »

The smartphone market is there to be won… In 2011 the ‘mobile ecosystem’ will be critical to driving loyalty

Gone are the days consumers choose mobile phones based solely on their features and functions. New research by GfK[1] shows that smartphone owners in key global markets buy into the ‘experiences’ created by the mobile ecosystem and the majority (56%) are ‘keeping their options open’, when deciding their next smartphone purchase.

Every quarter brings new reports of rapid growth in smartphones sales but a key question left unanswered is what is actually driving purchase in the high end smartphone category? Understanding drivers of purchase is naturally a complex subject due to the sheer number of factors that influence consumer decision making. Looking back as little as 3 years ago, the primary focus for many consumers was acquiring a well designed phone packed with the latest technology such as Wi-Fi, GPS, high resolution camera and so on. In recent years, however, development in mobile hardware has slowed and is arguably becoming less important. Of course, consumers still want good looking handsets with the latest technology, but with so much choice and less differentiation the mobile handset is potentially becoming a more commoditised purchase.

The differentiating factor now, especially among buyers of smartphones, is the ‘experience’, the possibilities smartphones enable and the needs they satisfy.  As such, it is often more appropriate to talk about the attachment consumers place on their smartphones being a direct result of the experiences provided within a ‘mobile ecosystem’. An ‘ecosystem’ can be considered as a mobile operating system (OS) that is internet enabled, has integrated services, is easily customised with 3rd party applications and allows straightforward and instant access to content relevant to the end-user.

So, why is it so important to understand the intricacies behind smartphone purchase decision making?  Well, put simply, there is still huge potential for manufacturers to take market share:

  1. 37% of mobile phone owners in key global[2] markets are looking to upgrade to smartphones on their next upgrade cycle
  2. The majority of smartphone users (56% globally) are keeping their options open on their next upgrade with very few people declaring loyalty to their current smartphone ecosystem

With the rapid advances of smartphone ecosystems in 2010 it is not surprising that consumers remain open minded about which manufacturer they will opt for on their next mobile upgrade. Each mobile ecosystem continues to develop new services, announce high profile applications and broker exciting content partnerships.  Table 1 (below), shows the varying levels of purchase consideration among consumers using different smartphone ecosystems:

TABLE 1: SMARTPHONE OS AND ECOSYSTEM LOYALTY


Base: Smartphone owners in China, Germany, Brazil, UK, US and Spain (n=2653)

Only 1 in 4 global smartphone users stated they would stay loyal to their current mobile ecosystem with the majority (56%) wanting to keep their options open. Understandably, huge importance is being placed on the ecosystem of smartphones by manufacturers.

Recently, for example, Nokia have rebuilt Symbian and launched Symbian^3 on the N8, whilst Microsoft released Windows Phone 7 in a high profile campaign across a range of high-end devices. Previously, both Symbian and Windows Mobile have come under criticism (from some quarters) for providing a user experience that does not match the high standards set by competitors and for offering limited services and content. This is reflected in the relatively lower loyalty scores their respective ecosystems generate; Symbian (24%) and Windows Mobile (29%). In contrast, Apple, who have arguably led the way in the smartphone market in terms of user experience and service / content provision have very high levels (59%) of stated loyalty to the Apple Ecosystem. Nevertheless, despite this lead even Apple and Android users would consider other mobile ecosystems when it comes to upgrading their phone.

So, with so many consumers keeping their options open, which ecosystems are they currently considering? Overall and perhaps unsurprisingly, Table 2 (below) indicates that Apple (53%) and Android (51%) lead the way in consumer future purchase consideration.

TABLE 2: SMARTPHONE ECOSYSTEM PURCHASE CONSIDERATION

Base: Smartphone owners in China, Germany, Brazil, UK, US and Spain who were aware of smartphone OS listed (n=1516)

Clearly, the positive user ‘experience’ provided by Apple and Android ecosystems is having a positive impact on their current user base. 85% of Apple users would consider re-purchasing an Apple smartphone and similarly 84% of Android users would also consider an Android based Smartphone.

The story is different for other smartphone Ecosystems. Users of Nokia smartphones (running Symbian) are currently more likely to consider alternative mobile ecosystems with Apple, Android and Windows Phone 7 all strong contenders. RIM, although behind Apple and Google Android, is in a stronger position as the large majority of its current base will consider re-purchasing a Blackberry. The challenge for RIM in 2011 is to drive up purchase consideration among non-users and grow its market share.

Evidently, the multitude of options is ensuring that competition in the smartphone market is intensifying. Despite the challenges faced by Nokia and RIM in 2010, they both have some exciting developments in the pipeline which will make them increasingly attractive in 2011. For Nokia, Symbian^3 has major updates scheduled in Q1 2011 and the first iteration of MeeGo (not tested in this research) is due for release in early 2011. In addition, RIM has recently launched their new operating system, RIM OS6, and they are expanding their device portfolio with the introduction of a tablet PC.

So, what is going to influence choice of mobile ecosystem?

Table 3 (below), shows that in 2011 consumers will be looking for experiences which are interoperable across varied devices such as the smartphone, tablet PC and laptops.

TABLE 3: WHAT SMARTPHONE CONSUMERS WANT FROM THEIR ECOSYSTEM

Base: Smartphone owners in China, Germany, Brazil, UK, US and Spain (n=2653)

Tablet PCs running the same ecosystems as Apple and Android based smartphones have enabled consumers to evolve the mobile ‘experience’ and benefit from different form factors on different devices. It is this kind of cross device ‘experience’ that high-end smartphone consumers will be looking for from their mobile ecosystem in 2011.  Smartphone owners from all ecosystem providers ranked the ability to sync their smartphone ‘experience’ with other device form factors as the most important factor. RIM’s tablet PC ‘Playbook’ is due for release in the first half of 2011 and it is rumoured that Microsoft and Nokia (through MeeGo) will follow suit. If RIM, Microsoft and Nokia can create cross device integrated ‘experiences’ then consumers will sit up and take note.

The provision of apps, services and content will still play an important role in 2011. However, it is interesting to see how this has developed and that the importance of ‘cloud’ based services suggests that consumers want their favourite mobile content supported across different device form factors.

2011 will clearly be an important year for smartphone providers. As consumers continue to buy into ‘experiences’, the mobile ecosystem will be vital to attracting the next wave of smartphone users and winning the hearts and minds of existing smartphone users. With many compelling options, it will be the manufacturers whose ecosystems offer diverse services, relevant content and a simple user experience across a range of device form factors who will find themselves in the driving seat.

[1] Global online research was conducted by GfK Custom Research among a sample of mobile phone users in Brazil (1480), Germany (1001), Spain (1202), UK (1499), USA (883) and China (578). Fieldwork was conducted during October and November 2010

[2] Global in this instance includes Brazil, Germany, Spain, UK and USA but excludes China

[3] We realise that Windows Mobile has been re-built and re-branded to Windows Phone 7. During the fieldwork period of this research, Windows Phone 7 had not been released so we refer to current ownership of Windows smartphones as Windows Mobile

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November 30, 2010 | Ryan Garner | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , Mobile Services, , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Will 2011 be the year NFC finally takes off?

Within the last week, Nokia, Google Android and RIM have announced, alongside rumours of Apple’s iPhone 5, that 2011 will see the start of NFC-enabled phones, and the beginning of widespread commercial usage of this exciting piece of technology.

Near Field Communication (NFC) is a form of wireless communication technology that allows an exchange of data from two devices if they come within 10cm of each other. It’s been around for quite a while; in fact most Londoners use it every day for travelling with Oyster cards. NFC phones first appeared in 2007, when Nokia released the first phone of this type. With all the benefits of NFC, it’s surprising that we still haven’t seen widespread commercial usage. However, this may all change early next year with the release of the Apple iPhone 5, which is rumoured to be NFC-enabled. If the excitement and buzz around new iPhones continues, this could be the start of something truly revolutionary. In an announcement only last week, Nokia pledged to activate their NFC chips in 2011, with Google and RIM keen to follow the trend, both declaring that the next version of Android and future Blackberrys will come with NFC. Clearly, it’s something not to miss out on.

With a big push from suppliers of mobile technology, how is NFC technology going to benefit the consumer? GfK NOP has been testing consumer applications of NFC since 2007, when we ran a high profile NFC trial for O2 in London. The trial reported positive feedback (in the press) for the technology, particularly the Oyster card integration on a mobile handset. People need incentives to embrace new technology, and now that the trials have shown the convenience and benefits of NFC, and users are clearly happy with it, it appears that the incentives are there.

Since the trial in 2007 the benefits and use cases have moved on. The new technology means that phones could become mobile wallets, keys, loyalty and travel cards, devices which allow vouchers, rewards and tickets to be received and stored and which transmit information from one device to another, for example, a camera or a television. NFC has been seen, through hundreds of trials and live services, to benefit the consumer. One of the main benefits is convenience. A typical customer journey might be as follows: you go into a shop and, by geo-location, receive information about that shop and/or offers available in it; you then buy items using your mobile and receive loyalty benefits, or use vouchers stored on the phone. On leaving the shop, you can get travel information by tapping an NFC code at a bus stop, and then pay for your journey by mobile. Once off the bus, you can go through ticket barriers to a concert, simply by tapping the phone on a ticket terminal.

Over the past few years merchants and handset manufacturers have, alongside banks, service providers and mobile network operators, been working out ways to capitalise on this consumer interest. As a result, several new partnerships and initiatives have been established, for example AT&T, T-mobile and Verizon announced recently a joint venture to utilise a mobile payment system, and some countries even have government backing for such schemes. Talk of NFC has increased dramatically in the last few months, as shown in Figure 1[1], and will continue to do so as more NFC services go live. An initial barrier to NFC usage growth – merchants’ unwillingness to upgrade transaction terminals (it’s expensive to do) – has now been solved with the introduction of a new Mobile Pay App. A geo-location tool identifies the merchant, the user taps to confirm the store, a PIN and payment is entered, the ‘Pay Now’ button hit, and voilà, transaction complete.

Figure 1. Google Trends image showing search volume index and news reference volume of ‘Near Field Communication’. This shows how online mentions of NFC have increased dramatically since August, and particularly in the last month, highlighting the buzz around this technology.

The interest from the various parties involved comes with the difficulty, however, of deciding where to place the NFC element, with mobile network operators, handset manufacturers and financial institutions preferring NFC in the SIM, embedded in the phone and on a microSD card, respectively. This competing interest will no doubt result in a power shift within the various parties involved, although it’s likely that NFC will benefit all three.

So will 2011 be the year NFC finally gains momentum?

Barriers to adoption

One of the biggest problems with NFC technology is one of its biggest assets… do consumers want everything on their phones? What if the battery dies? What if it gets lost or stolen? And it’s rather off-putting to have movements and purchases tracked as they can be by an NFC phone, and to be bombarded with information. Despite it being a popular concept to many, still over two-thirds of consumers have said they don’t want to pay by their mobile[2]. For the first few years anyway, NFC adoption might continue to be slow if limited to smartphone users and if people remain uninformed about the service and unconvinced that issues such as security and batteries are actually not a problem. Some speculate that only 16% of mobile subscribers will have NFC-capable mobile devices by 2014[3]. Because of these doubts, we’ll have to continue to wonder how well NFC will do, and whether these new partnerships will gain momentum in the New Year.

Positive signals

However, with companies like Apple (reportedly) driving service provision it’s hard to see how such NFC initiatives will fail to capture the imagination of the consumer smartphone market. Apple has a knack of taking technologies that have struggled to gain momentum (e.g. touchscreens and video calling) and giving them a new lease of life. In which case 2011 marks the start of a very exciting development in consumer–business relationships and how people use their phones.

[1] http://www.google.com/trends?q=Near+Field+Communication&ctab=0&geo=all&date=ytd

[2] http://www.nearfieldcommunicationsworld.com/2009/12/01/32406/59-of-consumers-want-to-use-their-phone-to-make-purchases-at-the-point-of-sale/

[3] http://voicendata.ciol.com/content/ContributoryArticles/110051003.asp

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November 22, 2010 | Anna Parkinson | Tags: Apple iPhone 5, AT&T, , , Mobile payment, , , , , , , , | No Comments »

Research shows that open public debate on Net Neutrality is critical

Consumer awareness and understanding of the concept of “net neutrality” is low. However, once the implications are made fully apparent, public reaction is very strong. It is therefore crucial that businesses and governments engage the public in a more open discussion.

Generally accepted to be one of the World Wide Web’s fundamental guiding principles, it appears that “Net Neutrality” may be under increasing threat from political, corporate and market forces. While debate continues as to its exact definition, “Net Neutrality” can be simply expressed as the view that “all internet traffic should be treated equally”; a principle that has resulted in freely available news and information, open digital platforms, globalised virtual communities, digital content sharing and the e-commerce revolution, amongst other things over the last two decades.

However, recent news, and specifically an alleged “two-tier” internet proposal by Google-Verizon, has highlighted the fragile nature of this concept. Rumours suggested these two companies would allow Internet Service Provider (ISPs) to offer increased bandwidth to consumers in return for premium bundled services and at the expense of other content. (1)

Essentially, providers would have a chance to mould the digital environment how they want … and then charge for it; the hope being that access to a reliable and fast service would be enough to encourage consumers to pay for something they currently receive for free. ISPs would also stand to gain through charging content providers for pipe-lining data, with charges tiered by the amount of capacity provided.

Google and Verizon flatly denied any such “deal” (2) and have gone to lengths to explain that their guidelines would still protect the “public” internet. However, these guidelines seem to be exclusive of wireless networks, and there is a proviso for ISPs to discriminate “specialist content.”(3)

While the debate continues, the clear danger for consumers is the sidelining of “free” and “open” content. Imagine trying to access a “lower tier” online service where access and load times are dependent on bandwidth spikes and troughs of paid-for content; possibly to the point where the lower tier content is almost unusable at given times.

However, at present, the general public remains largely unaware of these issues. Findings from a study conducted by GfK NOP in October to a representative sample of UK adults found that only 6% claimed to be fully aware of issues around “Net Neutrality”, with 15% admitting little knowledge of the implication despite recognising the term.

Nevertheless, once the implications were made apparent, consumer opinion was stronger: 72%  agreed all websites should have the ability to present their content with no one site having preference over another, with 70%  stating they should have the right to access content at any time with no limitations. When asked whether they would be willing to pay to guarantee the best possible internet experience (when accessing HD movies etc.) only 13% of the sample said that they would. It would seem that if these issues were made more transparent to consumers, then the majority would prefer for equal access to continue.

Net Neutrality will continue to remain controversial, particularly with legislators showing little consistency in their moves to support telecommunications companies/content providers or consumers across different countries.

The natural conclusion would be to educate people further, so that public opinion can be better informed and to ensure the final decision is not just left to small groups of people who are “in the know”.  After all, the internet is one of the biggest democracies we have and it would be a real shame to throw that away.

REFERENCES

(1)   

(2)   

(3)   

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November 11, 2010 | Jon Shingler | Tags: , , , , , openess, , , | 1 Comment »

The “Tablet PC” market looks promising in 2011… Apple takes a sigh of relief

High levels of consideration for competitor tablets suggest Apple won’t have it all their own way in 2011 but they’ll be thankful for the competition in the long run.

A recent article in The Guardian [1] posited that one of the best things that could happen to Apple to ensure continued success of the iPad was for competitors to launch tablet computers, and for these products to enjoy moderate levels of success. As happened with the iPod many moons ago, the thinking here is that a batch of serious rival devices would help cement tablets as a ‘legitimate’ category in consumers’ minds, encouraging continued sales and crucially allowing Apple to progressively refine and release further iterations of their hardware. (Although the impressive sales of the iPad so far would suggest this won’t be an issue.)

Of course, the tablet market is now visibly exploding: Samsung launched the android-powered Galaxy[2] last week to mostly positive reviews and BlackBerry’s much anticipated ‘Playbook’ is due to arrive in the New Year in the US. With devices from a myriad of other manufacturers waiting in the wings, it’s going to be an interesting 12 months.

For some initial context as to how this battle might play out, in October GfK spoke to a representative sample of UK consumers to assess levels of interest in these devices.[3] Bearing in mind that the research was conducted prior to the Galaxy launch and without any firm details on the Playbook publicly available, the results suggest that Apple are indeed going to get the competition that this category needs to thrive.

Overall, 6% of the sample stated intent to purchase a tablet PC in the next six months. (As a benchmark, 14% intend to acquire a new smartphone and 14% a Windows based laptop/notebook. Interestingly, 6% expressed likelihood to purchase a netbook, suggesting tablets will not completely eat away this category just yet.)

Using these figures as a rough guide (and applying a down-weight to account for consumer overclaim), we could still expect around 367,000 new tablet sales in the UK by the end of Q1, 2011[4].

As might be expected, the iPad received the highest level of consideration amongst these would-be purchasers, with around four in five saying they would consider Apple (and, tellingly, next to no one stating they wouldn’t.) However, one in two stated they would at least consider purchasing the BlackBerry Playbook, and two in five the Samsung Galaxy pad. Given the scarcity of available details on the latter two products at that time, this consideration would mostly be driven by the strong associations that these brands carry.

Now that the Samsung tablet has actually been launched with a number of consumer-friendly features (camera, video chat, lighter weight, ability to run Adobe flash), and rumours are suggesting a low-priced Playbook that one can join up with their Smartphone contract [5], indicatively, one would feel Apple may not have it all their way next year. It will be interesting to see what an iPad mark II will bring to the table.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on how this develops and publish some updated figures in the New Year when the category becomes even further established in consumers’ minds. Watch this space.

[1] http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/blog/2010/sep/17/ipad-apple-2011-revision-expect

[2] http://www.samsung.com/uk/galaxytab/

[3] 881 online interviews were conducted by GfK NOP among a UK representative sample of internet users. The fieldwork was conducted between 22– 25 October 2010

[4] The calculation used in the estimate was based on the % of respondents from the research who indicated they intend to purchase a tablet PC in the next 6 months, expressed as a proportion of the current UK, adult population accessing the internet. (38.3 million adult internet users taken from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=8 ) This figure was then downweighted using GfK’s truth index, designed to deal with the phenomenon of consumer overclaim. This index effectively downgrades the level of claimed purchase or switching to a more realistic level. This is done by applying different weights to each category of likelihood which is expressed. In this case, of those who say they will probably buy, we should assume only 16% actually will.

[5] http://www.wallblog.co.uk/2010/11/10/blackberrys-playbook-to-sell-for-under-500/

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November 10, 2010 | Richard Preedy | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Mobile operating systems – the battle for hearts & wallets

Smartphone operating systems (OS) have become arguably ‘the’ most critical factor in the mobile device market in recent times. Whilst obviously being crucial to the functional capabilities of a mobile device, they are now also seen as the cornerstone of its revenue potential. This has brought about a fascinating battle amongst the biggest names in the mobile and Internet markets, all looking to ensure their OS is the market leader. The result of this battle is likely to have a significant influence on who will dominate these markets during the next few years.

Phones with advanced operating systems now account for approximately 70% of the contract market in the UK*. This has led to a significant market share decline for Symbian, which has for some time been the most prevalent OS in the market, and increased competition amongst the four key operating systems at the higher end of the market – RIM’s BlackBerry OS, Apple’s iOS, Microsoft’s Windows Mobile, and the newest OS to the market, Google’s Android.

Android is an open platform, free for device makers to license and use. Google don’t make a penny selling the operating system, but are expecting the resulting revenue from their app store and their ability to control Internet search through these mobile devices to more than cover the outlay they have made in development.

The signs are that this is likely to be a successful strategy for Google. In May 2010 GfK Marketing Services reported that UK sales of Android phones had risen by more than 300% from the beginning of the year, with one in ten contract handsets sold in the UK running this operating system. As a result of this the Android share of the UK mobile contract market grew by 10.2 percentage points from 3% to 13.2%.*

Unsurprisingly, the evolution of the market and the rise of the Android OS have changed the competitive landscape. There are challenges both for those who have been leading the market, and those who are looking to make inroads.

Apple remains in a strong position. They have a major hold on the market, with their devices, app store, and consumer experience seen by many as second to none. The loyalty that this creates will carry them forward in the foreseeable future, but they must continue to innovate on hardware and software in order to retain their market position.

Similarly, RIM are also in a strong position with their penetration of the business market. However this is tempered by the growth in the number of devices that are able to offer a consumer friendly experience in conjunction with the tools needed for business communications. RIM realised this and announced the release of their BlackBerry 6 OS, which will be highly significant to the continued progress of RIM in the market.

Symbian should certainly not be forgotten, despite recent trends and a shrinking market share they remain the worldwide market leader. They face some significant barriers if they are to maintain this position, however the Symbian4 OS which is to be released in 2011 promises to be a simpler platform which will attract developers, and could ensure Symbian become a major presence in smart phones.

One current unknown is the impact Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 will have on the market when it is released. Microsoft are widely perceived to have fallen behind their three key competitors in the market, and it’s possible that this release is coming a bit late; however they retain significant influence amongst consumers.

So who is likely to come out on top?

The early signs are that Apple is holding up well in response to the Android challenge. They are continuing to grow share in the mobile device market, no doubt bolstered by the recent release of the iPad. Data from GfK NOP indicates strong loyalty amongst Apple customers in the UK, with 59% saying they intend to stick with Apple for their next upgrade, and only 3% saying that they would be likely to switch to an Android phone the next time around. This was in contrast to Android users, of whom 49% are thinking about switching to a phone with a competing OS.**

For the time being, it is likely that the iOS and Android will grow share at the expense of their competitors rather than each other. Unless devices containing the Blackberry 6 OS, the launch of the Windows Phone 7, or the Symbian^3 OS, are particularly well received, this threatens to become a two-horse race.

* GfK Marketing Services May 2010
** Global online research was conducted by GfK Custom Research among a sample of mobile phone users in Brazil (1480), Germany (1001), Spain (1202), UK (1499), USA (883) and China (578). Fieldwork was conducted during October and November 2010

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November 1, 2010 | Andrew Stillwell | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , Mobile Services, , , , , | No Comments »

Why Windows Phone 7 demands high levels of consumer interest

In the PC market, Microsoft’s Windows OS is as common as the mobile phone in your pocket. However, Windows Mobile has struggled to capture the imagination of both consumers and businesses. In fact, with a rapidly declining 5% [1] of the global smartphone market it’s fair to say that relatively speaking Windows Mobile has been a horrible failure. But that’s all about to change.

Recent research by GfK NOP [2] shows that interest in Windows Phone 7 (the catchy name given to the successor of Windows Mobile 6.5) is strong. Almost one in five (18%) of UK mobile phone owners say they would consider a Windows Phone 7 (let’s go with WP7 from here on in) handset (available on HTC and Samsung devices among others) when they next come to renew, upgrade or buy their next mobile phone. Of course current smartphone owners display much higher levels of interest (32%). What’s more, Microsoft will be pleased to hear that of all smartphone owners, those using Google’s Android will be most interested (41%) in WP7. So what’s changed?

One smartphone for all needs

New entrants into the smartphone business, such as Apple and Google (Android), have been quickly gaining market share from older incumbents such as Nokia, Microsoft and Palm. There are many reasons for this but one of the underlying factors is that smartphones developed by Apple and Google satisfy a broad array of consumer needs, including needs consumers didn’t even know they had.

This is a big sea change to the range of smartphone offerings available as recently as four to five years ago. Microsoft, Palm and RIM targeted their phones squarely at the business user while in the consumer market there was a portfolio of highly targeted phones; one for music lovers, one for mobile gamers and so on. The iPhone and the numerous Android based smartphones are designed to not only satisfy the broad range of consumer needs (music, gaming, email, maps, productivity etc.), they are also becoming attractive solutions in the enterprise market. Importantly, the content available on their respective app stores creates a sense that anything is possible.

The key to Apple and Google Android’s success is that they do a lot of things really well and don’t just rely on certain core services. Microsoft has recognised the success of this formula and WP7 has a plethora of pre-installed services and marketplaces from which to download apps and media content. This makes their smartphones an attractive solution to a broader market of consumers and enterprises.

Stephen Fry [3] summed this up perfectly at the launch event of WP7:

“[people are not] one thing when they’re outside work, and another when they’ve gone through the swipe barrier” … he went on to say … “Now, they get it [Microsoft]: that all human beings are human beings first. You don’t judge the machines you use, or the houses you live in, by listing their functions. The first thing you do is say how you feel about your office; when you buy a house, you do it essentially on the feeling.”

Why Windows Phone 7 will be a success

This sentiment is reflected in the drivers of interest for Microsoft’s new WP7 platform. We presented and described the new features of WP7 to those who were interested in the new smartphone platform. Very few respondents selected just one feature and the results show a fairly even spread across many of the announced features. Despite email and Outlook integration being the most popular (52%), search and maps (43%), the Office hub (41%) and all the multimedia features take a significant share of the appeal of the new platform.

With the smartphone market becoming ever more competitive, providers will be looking for new ways to differentiate. Of course, different app stores have varying levels of content, there are ease of use drivers and brand effects but there are other ways. Each smartphone provider has a portfolio of digital properties that they can use to differentiate. Apple has iTunes, Android has Google Maps Navigation and a wide array of Google services, and Nokia has Ovi. WP7 also has an incredibly strong offering when it integrates many of Microsoft’s digital services on a smartphone device. Microsoft Office, used by the vast majority of consumers, is seamlessly integrated into the new platform. There is obviously full support for Microsoft Exchange with Outlook integration, XBOX 360 gaming arena, Bing search and maps, and Zune marketplace for music and videos.

All this makes Windows Phone 7 an attractive solution before the consumer has even browsed the app store. This is what makes WP7 so compelling; Microsoft has finally taken its strength in the PC/online market to the smartphone!

[1] Mobile operating system market share http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1421013

[2] 881 online interviews were conducted by GfK NOP among a UK representative sample of internet users. The fieldwork was conducted between 22nd – 25th October 2010

[3] Stephen Fry’s comments http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/oct/12/stephen-fry-windows-phone-7

IMAGE SOURCE:

http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/presskits/windowsphone/images/wp7logo_web.jpg

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October 28, 2010 | Ryan Garner | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , Mobile Services, , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Innovations in video improve business decision making

It’s an exciting time to be involved in the digital world; only recently we were still developing .mobi websites, now it’s an annoyance when we get forced to a .mobi on a smartphone browser. We were sending each other MMS messages, now we just email them directly from our email account. Our number one reason to upgrade a phone was for more mega pixels from the built-in camera, now it’s less about the hardware and more about software.

Such rapid changes in technology force the online space to adapt and change to suit how the user wants to access content, one area that has maintained a steady evolution is online video technology.

Despite confusion around how internet protocol television (IPTV) would evolve, issues around IPTV advertising and how it might be funded, the BBC i-Player ploughed its own furrow. Channels and websites soon began to follow, and this evolved quickly as pocket technology demanded faster download and streaming capabilities.
This not only led to dramatic improvements in how video is served up, but also the compression of video files and file sizes had to decrease in order to be utilised across these platforms, especially as affordable cameras began to introduce HDD technology.

Up until recently this technology did not match, so if you shot on a prosumer Hard Disc camera, then your only option would have been to roughly edit on the camera and burn the files to DVD for playback. It has recently become easier to convert these files (.vod or .mts) or drag them directly into an edit suite.
During these times of change it became evident that market and business intelligence can be delivered quicker and in a more impactful way. It’s been fascinating to see how quickly video has been adopted as an important medium to communicate data, research and insight across global businesses. In the work we do at GfK NOP video is now used at more stages of a research project than you could imagine 3-4 years ago.

At its most basic, video offers a personal touch, and validates data and research findings by offering feedback direct from a business’s customers. Examples of these are vox pops and extracts from focus groups embedded in a final report or presentation. Today’s technology means that vox pops can be cleverly incorporated into reports to produce powerful ‘voice of the consumer’ insights and the standard of video and clarity of audio have vastly improved.

However we are delivering far more of our knowledge and insight via video – from short films starring market experts at pitches, through to five minute report summaries encompassing animated text, graphical representations of reports with voice-over and an engaging sound track that holds the attention of the viewer.

The popularity of video in the business world is increasing over time as clients begin demanding more efficient ways of communicating and digesting information. A great example of this is the development of client video portals, a sort of a corporate YouTube platform, to combat the problem of large video files and improve the sharing of information by circulating hyperlinks.
The illustration below shows at how widely GfK NOP is using video across the lifecycle of a research study:

Looking to the future we see the use of video having far more impact than merely what you see in front of the lens as software technology improves; screen capture, Voice Over IP and bandwidth improvements all open up new video-in-research opportunities, adding multiple dimensions to usability testing, remote interviewing and focus groups, more personal online qual research and much more.

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August 26, 2010 | Glenn Ward | Tags: , , , , , , presentation, , , , video reporting, , , vox pops| 2 Comments »

Mobile data allowance grows in importance among smartphone owners

Recent research conducted by GfK NOP shows that, among smartphone owners, mobile data allowance is more important than the network operator and the handset type.

From previous posts on TechTalk we’ve shown how the use of mobile apps shows no sign of abating and that the tight integration of services on the iPhone drives Apple’s smartphone success. This thirst for apps and services is the reason why smartphone owners are placing greater importance on their mobile data allowance. Smartphone owners now rely on the services their phone provides and taking these away is not an option.

With many UK operators having recently capped their data allowances, smartphone owners will think carefully about their next mobile tariff. GfK NOP estimates that 24 per cent of contract customers using smartphones would actually switch operators if they could get a better mobile data allowance elsewhere.

The decision to cap mobile data usage is a sensible one as the major UK network operators have millions of customers who depend on a reliable mobile network. However, in doing so, network operators need to consider the mindset of the consumer. The average mobile phone user including many smartphone users simply don’t know how much data they use. Those who require a data allowance will always prefer an ‘unlimited’ package for peace of mind. Now that ‘unlimited’ data is coming to an end, consumers will look for the safest option; in other words the operator offering the most generous package.

It is easy to see why smartphone owners react this way when you look at the level of importance they place on using services on their mobile phone. Table 1 (below), shows the level of importance consumers place on mobile services in their day-to-day routine:

Table 1: Importance of mobile service usage

There is clearly a stark contrast between the UK average mobile consumer and smartphone users. Given this huge difference in attitudes it is little wonder the extra emphasis smartphone users are placing on mobile data tariffs. The biggest challenge for network operators over the next few years is how they cope with the increasing demand for smartphones and the increase in data usage this will inevitably bring.

This research was conducted in association with Reuters who have published a thorough market analysis here

If you have any questions or comments regarding the research please click here to email us or leave your opinion in the comments section below

RESEARCH NOTES

  • Research was conducted by GfK NOP in association with Reuters between 16 – 19 July 2010
  • 978 interviews were conducted online among UK adults aged 16 and over. The sample is representative of UK adults with internet access.
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August 12, 2010 | Ryan Garner | Tags: , , , , , , , Mobile Services, , | No Comments »
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