The smartphone market has been growing rapidly over the past few years, with smartphone adoption spreading across the population. The youth market is also picking up this trend and the numbers who want or own a smartphone device are growing. So which smartphones are being adopted by future generations and why?

A smartphone for Christmas

The youth market for mobile devices is swiftly rising, and the age at which children acquire their first mobile phone is getting younger and younger. It is estimated that over 90% of 12-15 year olds already have a mobile phone and the number of smartphone acquisitions in this market is also growing [1]. Considering that a large amount of mobile phones acquired by the youth market are being gifted and are often from the medium to high-end price range, it is not surprising that the youth market are picking up the smartphone trend. Also, considering that most of the time it is the end-user that is influencing purchase of the gift, it is interesting to find out what are driving these decisions [1].

NFC technology has the ability to transform smartphones into virtual wallets, where users pay for transactions simply by waving their phone at an appropriate receiver terminal. However, it also has much wider applications, allowing for synchronised content and services across the mobile ecosystem [1]. The reward for owning this relationship in the mobile space is enormous, and as a result everyone, from mobile operators to device manufacturers, is fighting for a share.

The industry message seems clear; mobile payments will be big over the next five years – big news and big profits. The technology has been around in various forms for years and, now that leading names such as Apple, Google and RIM are designing and manufacturing NFC-equipped devices, many commentators predict that mobile payments will skyrocket [2].

However, while this will undoubtedly be a major growth area for the future, such reports seldom address the fact that the journey to full consumer adoption is not without its pitfalls.

Gone are the days consumers choose mobile phones based solely on their features and functions. New research by GfK[1] shows that smartphone owners in key global markets buy into the ‘experiences’ created by the mobile ecosystem and the majority (56%) are ‘keeping their options open’, when deciding their next smartphone purchase.

Every quarter brings new reports of rapid growth in smartphones sales but a key question left unanswered is what is actually driving purchase in the high end smartphone category? Understanding drivers of purchase is naturally a complex subject due to the sheer number of factors that influence consumer decision making. Looking back as little as 3 years ago, the primary focus for many consumers was acquiring a well designed phone packed with the latest technology such as Wi-Fi, GPS, high resolution camera and so on. In recent years, however, development in mobile hardware has slowed and is arguably becoming less important. Of course, consumers still want good looking handsets with the latest technology, but with so much choice and less differentiation the mobile handset is potentially becoming a more commoditised purchase.

In the PC market, Microsoft’s Windows OS is as common as the mobile phone in your pocket. However, Windows Mobile has struggled to capture the imagination of both consumers and businesses. In fact, with a rapidly declining 5% [1] of the global smartphone market it’s fair to say that relatively speaking Windows Mobile has been a horrible failure. But that’s all about to change.

Recent research by GfK NOP [2] shows that interest in Windows Phone 7 (the catchy name given to the successor of Windows Mobile 6.5) is strong. Almost one in five (18%) of UK mobile phone owners say they would consider a Windows Phone 7 (let’s go with WP7 from here on in) handset (available on HTC and Samsung devices among others) when they next come to renew, upgrade or buy their next mobile phone. Of course current smartphone owners display much higher levels of interest (32%). What’s more, Microsoft will be pleased to hear that of all smartphone owners, those using Google’s Android will be most interested (41%) in WP7. So what’s changed?

Recent research conducted by GfK NOP shows that, among smartphone owners, mobile data allowance is more important than the network operator and the handset type.

From previous posts on TechTalk we’ve shown how the use of mobile apps shows no sign of abating and that the tight integration of services on the iPhone drives Apple’s smartphone success. This thirst for apps and services is the reason why smartphone owners are placing greater importance on their mobile data allowance. Smartphone owners now rely on the services their phone provides and taking these away is not an option.

With many UK operators having recently capped their data allowances, smartphone owners will think carefully about their next mobile tariff. GfK NOP estimates that 24 per cent of contract customers using smartphones would actually switch operators if they could get a better mobile data allowance elsewhere.

Expect to see a vibrant and competitive tablet PC market over the next 12 months as Apple sell 2 million iPads globally in less than 60 days.

Apple certainly knows how to get the media and public excited about their latest creation, the iPad. Everyone is talking about the iPad and tablet PCs and this is not just tech press but also mainstream news bulletins. Apple is extremely proficient at sparking people’s imagination around all the creative ways their products, iPhone and iPad, can be used. Apple’s famous strapline for the iPhone was “there’s an app for that” which creates a powerful perception that anything is possible, and the same applies on the iPad.

The launch of the Wholesale Applications Community is potentially a substantial challenge from network operators to the dominance of Apple. Managing consumer demand and the consumer experience are likely to be key.

Recent news that 24 leading network operators are launching The Wholesale Applications Community, a mobile apps store which aims to make it easier for developers to build and sell apps “irrespective of device or technology”, begs the question of how consumers will respond.

It’s certainly a tough market for network operators with recent research by GfK Technology showing handset manufacturers dominating the apps market and indeed, a recent report by Gartner gives the somewhat startling statistic that Apple is responsible for 99.4% of mobile apps sales in 2009.

The four key factors that GfK Technology consider to be critical in driving the potential success of this sort of store are:

We often seem to think that the Apple App Store has a dominant market position for mobile devices helped in no small part by the extensive press coverage it seems to attract. Recent research by GfK Technology (1,000 online interviews conducted in Jan 2010) suggests, however, that the apps store market is in reality more varied with a wide range of stores competing for business.

The Apple Apps Store does indeed lead the market but with 39% of consumers (that downloaded an application for their mobile device in the last 3 months) using it rather than a convincing majority. That’s not to say that they are better than other stores at extracting money from consumers or encouraging repeat visits but in terms of where individuals do their mobile apps shopping, they still have some way to go before taking the majority of the market.

Mobile devices continue to be a significant advertising channel according to recent research GfK Technology recently undertook in the UK.  The proportion of consumers who had received some form of mobile advertising stood at 47%, fairly consistent with the findings from Q2 ’09.  The big shift is perhaps the growth of iPhone as a staggering 84% of iPhone users say they have seen mobile advertising in the last 3 months vs. 45% of all other mobile phone users.

SMS continues to be the dominant form of mobile advertising with 38% of UK consumers receiving at least one in the last quarter.  It’s therefore not surprising that network operators are putting significant investment into this area with O2 launching their SMS marketing service, More, in December and Orange partnering a trial with Blyk mid ’09.